Sensitivity analysis

Updated 27.2.2024

Currency

Approximately 57% (44) of sales and 52% (50) of operating costs were denominated in euros, and approximately 28% (40) of sales and 24% (24) of operating costs were denominated in US dollars. The remainder were split between several currencies.

Oil and gas price

Global natural gas prices have decreased from the previous year’s extreme highs but remain above pre-2021 levels. The year witnessed significant gas price volatility, showcasing the market’s continued sensitivity to disruptions in supply and demand.

The direct effect of oil and gas price changes on Wärtsilä’s operations is limited and mostly related to fuel costs for engine testing, R&D activities, and the heating of some premises. In general, higher oil and gas prices represent a risk for global economic growth and increased operating costs, especially in the shipping markets. On the other hand, higher oil and gas prices increase interest in our energy efficiency offering and increase the demand for alternative green fuels as they become more cost-competitive against conventional fuels. Wärtsilä is a global company involved in different shipping and power plant segments where oil and gas price changes can have an opposing impact on demand drivers.

In the marine markets, high gas prices or their volatility are not expected to reduce the appetite for LNG as a fuel in the long run. The demand for LNG remains elevated as many countries in Europe have shifted away from Russian pipeline gas to LNG. Higher demand and supply volumes, and investments in expanding LNG liquefaction capacity, are driving demand for additional LNG carrier capacity. However, shipyards capable of building LNG carriers have few to no slots available in the coming years. Persistent high gas prices may encourage ship operators to switch temporarily from LNG to low-sulphur fuel, which most modern vessels can use in dual-fuel engines.

In the energy markets, gas price volatility and increasing prices can have a negative impact on the competitiveness of our portfolio, especially in thermal baseload plants, and may lead to more running hours of coal and nuclear power plants. Higher fuel prices may have an impact on project viability and customer decision making. However, these are expected to have less of an impact on thermal balancing power plants with fewer running hours.

Raw materials

Metal prices have an indirect effect on component cost for Wärtsilä’s products. Some key components are sourced with long-term contracts which limits raw material price volatility during the validity of contracts. However, concentrated supply chains of some raw materials, and the tight competitive situation to secure supplies, impose direct risks to the Energy business. The battery industry has been suffering from price volatility, and the price of lithium has decreased significantly during the year.

Interest rates 

Wärtsilä spreads its interest rate risk exposure by taking both fixed and floating rate loans. The share of fixed rate loans as a proportion of the total debt can vary between 30 and 70%. Wärtsilä hedges its loan portfolio by using derivative instruments, such as interest rate swaps, futures and options.

At the end of 2023, a one percentage point parallel decrease/increase of the yield curve would have resulted in a EUR 5 million (10) increase/decrease in the value of the net debt portfolio, including derivatives. A one percentage point change in the interest level would cause a EUR 4 million (3) change in the following year’s interest expenses from the debt portfolio, including derivatives. In both analyses, the debt portfolio as of 31 December 2023 is used.

More information can be found on our Risk management pages.