◾
the
average
global
sea-level
rise
will
reach
0.63–1.01
m
by
2100
relative
to
the
1995–2014
average;
and
◾
regulations
on
GHG
emissions
may
become
stricter
in
the
short
term,
then
halt
at
those
levels,
and
no
further
significant
policy
tightening
will
be
introduced
globally.
The
time
horizons
considered
in
the
analysis
were:
Short
Medium
Long
Wärtsilä’s
main
decarbonisation
targets
are
set
for
2030.
Very
low
GHG
emissions
scenario
Based
on
the
results
of
the
scenario
analysis,
Wärtsilä’s
considers
that
its
business
model
and
strategy
are
clearly
fit
for
the
“Very
low
GHG”
scenario,
where
climate
change
related
transition
opportunities
with
regards
to
customer
demand,
R&D
and
innovation,
and
regulations
are
expected
to
increase
substantially
In
the
marine
industry,
for
example,
the
International
Maritime
Organisation
(IMO)
has
already
introduced
regulations
to
drive
the
green
transformation.
Wärtsilä’s
broad
portfolio
of
engines,
digital
technologies,
propulsion
systems,
hybrid
technology,
and
integrated
powertrain
systems
aim
to
deliver
the
efficiency,
reliability,
safety,
and
environmental
performance
needed
to
support
its
customers
during
the
transformation
and
beyond.
In
the
energy
industry,
Wärtsilä
envisions
a
100%
renewable
energy
future
under
the
very
low
GHG
emission
scenario.
Wärtsilä
aims
to
support
its
customers
in
decarbonisation
by
sustainable-
fuel
enabled
balancing
power
plants,
hybrid
solutions,
as
well
as
with
energy
storage
and
optimisation
technology.
For
both
industries,
Wärtsilä
aims
to
have
a
product
portfolio
ready
for
zero
carbon
fuels
by
2030.
However,
in
this
scenario
there
is
a
transition
risk
of
raw
material
costs
starting
to
increase
by
2030,
mainly
due
to
EU
regulations
on
emissions,
such
as
the
Carbon
Border
Adjustment
Mechanism
(CBAM),
and
a
plausible
scarcity
of
battery
materials
in
case
supply
chains
do
not
function
as
expected.
To
this,
Wärtsilä
aims
to
respond
by
ensuring
material
availability
and
cost
visibility
end-to-
end
of
the
supply
chain
by
entering
into
long-term
supply
agreements
and
diversifying
the
supply
base.
Another
considerable
transition
risk
is
competitors
commercialising
similar
technologies
faster
or
more
successfully
than
Wärtsilä
particularly
in
the
long
run.
There
may
be
disruptive
technologies
emerging,
impacting
the
future
of
low
to
zero
emission
technologies.
Wärtsilä
aims
to
continue
and
even
increase
the
R&D
efforts
related
to
zero
carbon
fuel/decarbonisation-related
products
and
services
to
mitigate
this
risk.
Regulations
aimed
at
limiting
GHG
emissions
can
also
be
seen
as
a
transition
risk.
The
level
of
impact
will
depend
on
the
strictness
of
the
regulations,
for
example
whether
new
installations
running
on
fossil
fuels
can
be
sold
at
all.
For
Wärtsilä,
overall,
the
possibilities
to
overcome
future
transition
risks
will
also
depend
on
the
availability
of
green,
zero
carbon
fuels
and
the
infrastructure
readiness
for
them,
as
well
as
the
company’s
capabilities
to
develop
technologies
fulfilling
the
regulatory
The
probability
of
physical
risks
creating
a
significant
impact
on
Wärtsilä
is
considered
very
limited
in
this
scenario.
Very
high
GHG
emissions
scenario
Wärtsilä’s
business
outlook
under
this
scenario
is
considered
to
be
more
challenging,
and
related
risks
may
require
Wärtsilä
to
partially
reconsider
its
current
strategy
and
R&D
programmes.
However,
it
should
be
noted
that
customer
demand
may
still
increase
in
this
scenario,
for
example
by
customer
demand
for
energy
solutions
and
dual
fuel
power
generating
solutions
positively
impacting
Wärtsilä’s
EBIT
in
the
short
to
medium
term.
Also,
in
this
scenario,
R&D
would
still
present
opportunities,
although
smaller,
in
for
example
engine
performance
improvement.
The
probability
of
physical
risks,
such
as
heatwaves
and
flooding
due
to
extreme
precipitation
events,
is
greater
in
this
scenario,
impacting
Wärtsilä’s
supply
chain
and
customers
to
varying
degrees.
However,
Wärtsilä
will
aim
to
mitigate
the
impact
by
way
of
precautionary
measures.
While
it
is
anticipated
that
some
of
the
most
heavily
affected,
smaller
sites
may
turn
unproductive
or
costly
to
run,
and
relocation
may
be
considered,
Wärtsilä
expects
to
benefit
from
the
fact
that
it
mostly
leases
rather
than
owns
facilities.
No
stranded
assets
or
business
activities
were
identified
in
neither
scenario,
with
an
unlikely
but
possible
exception
of
an
immediate,
complete
ban
on
fossil
fuels
in
the
short
term.
The
convertibility
of
Wärtsilä’s
engines
and
auxiliary
systems
to
run
with
several
zero-
carbon
fuels
in
the
future
enables
customers
plan
ahead
on
moving
to
such
energy
sources,
reducing
the
risk
of
stranded
assets
for
Wärtsilä
or
its
customers.
Wärtsilä’s
different
GHG
emission
sources
and
amounts
are
disclosed
in
section
2.2.6,
followed
by
their
accounting
principles.
In
the
financial
statements
there
are
no
critical
climate-related
assumptions
made
in
relation
to
the
climate
scenarios.
Overview
of
risks
and
opportunities
identified,
and
The
table
below
lists
the
most
relevant
risks
and
opportunities
related
to
climate
change
for
Wärtsilä,
as
well
as
the
strategic
responses
to
mitigate
these
risks
and
maximise
the
possibility
to
realise
the
full
potential
of
such
opportunities.
Each
risk
and
opportunity
is
presented
for
the
three
time-horizons
on
two
consecutive
rows,
the
first
based
on
the
“Very
low
GHG”
scenario,
and
the
following
row
on
the
“Very
high
GHG”
scenario.
The
risk
and
opportunity
exposure
values
are
expressed
on
a
scale
with
five
levels:
“VL-Very
low”,
“L-Low”,
“M-Medium”,
“H-High”
and
“VH-Very
High”.