Droughts cost the world an estimated USD 34.2 billion last year compared to an annual average of USD 8.5 billion between 2002 and 2021. That’s according to a report by the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED).
The recently released report estimates that globally, droughts impacted more than 106 million people in 2022 compared to the annual average of 70.7 million people in the past 2 decades.
Africa saw the worst of it as 89 million people were affected by droughts. And the United States witnessed the largest financial losses of USD 22 billion due to a megadrought in the West and Southwest, followed by China (USD 7.6 billion) and Brazil (USD 4 billion).
“There is a need to invest in short-term, monthly, seasonal and El Nino/La Nina forecasting capacities, improve water resource management, and optimise the use of water for agriculture, industry, and human needs. Population growth is causing a major problem for the availability of water in Africa, the Middle East, and Southern Asia,” says Petteri Taalas, Secretary-General of The World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
Drought monitoring and forecasting alert decision-makers to the drought conditions, but the other major problem is that policy gaps and climate change have made proactive investment and planning more difficult.
“In most parts of the world, when droughts come the response by governments is crisis-led, but that is not effective and has been shown to be much more costly. We need proactive planning. The best time to develop a drought plan is when it's raining outside and the actions are derived from multi-ministerial engagements with multi-level commitments,” explains Rachael McDonnell, Deputy Director General of the International Water Management Institute.
“We know that droughts are becoming more severe, intense, and frequent in many parts of the world. This makes drought management difficult because previously we have relied on records of past events to predict what to expect in the future. With climate change, those historical records no longer represent the dynamics that now exist. So being able to develop adequate plans and investments to reduce the impacts of droughts is a more difficult challenge.”
During the past 50 years weather disasters have caused a loss of USD 3.6 trillion, and since the 1970’s there has been an eightfold increase in the loss costs.
So, what is the way out of this conundrum? Taking a long, hard look at water resources and how we use them would be a good place to start. McDonnell suggests identifying and developing alternative sources of water by differentiating between physical and economic scarcity and implementing solutions that support more efficient water use.
She explains that there are several parts of the world that receive variable rainfall but have existing groundwater and river-based systems that are under-used because there is limited investment in the required infrastructure to support this such as for irrigation. This, coupled with more drought-tolerant crop species, can begin to tackle some of the challenges droughts bring to our food systems. Recycled water also opens new opportunities.
“There are important moves towards harnessing recycled water, which is often nutrient rich. And it is a part of the thinking around the circular economy. For example, alongside the recycling of water, faecal sludge can be sterilised and recycled for carbon sequestration in soils and to generate biogas,” elaborates McDonnell.
“These little bits and pieces of change in our water sources can be very useful to offset droughts and there are good examples of new thinking in the UAE and MENA region. We need to come up with good business models and systems and have a change in mindset to develop these alternative water sources,” she points out.
Apart from developing water resources and alternative sources of water, we also need to build climate-resilient water infrastructure that withstands, responds, and recovers rapidly from climate-related disruptions. That’s because disasters like droughts are causing big damage to the world’s existing infrastructure.
According to an OECD report on climate resilient infrastructure, Europe is expected to see damage to infrastructure from extreme weather events rise ten-fold by the end of the century. And a dry climate scenario could see Africa’s hydropower generation reduced by USD 83 billion leading to higher costs for consumers.
“During the past 50 years weather disasters have caused a loss of USD 3.6 trillion, and since the 1970’s there has been an eightfold increase in the loss costs,” says Taalas.
Droughts are becoming more severe, intense, and frequent in many parts of the world. This makes drought management difficult because previously we have relied on records of past events to predict what to expect in the future. With climate change, those historical records no longer represent the dynamics that now exist.
Innovation, collaboration, and the right investments can help avoid that. For instance, in Germany shipping companies are working on low-water ships and tankers that can sail on the receding waters of the Rhine for transportation.
Another example is of the US, where Arizona, Nevada and California have reportedly struck a deal to cut water usage by 55%, 30% and 6% each totalling at least 3 million acre-feet (1 acre foot = 325,900 gallons) of water by 2026.
This deal is expected to bring down water consumption from the Colorado Basin by more than 10%. The federal government is expected to pay farmers, cities, and Native American tribes from these three states 1.2 billion USD if it is successfully executed.
No doubt collaboration and adaptation will help us adapt to impending climate disasters better. But the size of the problem is only getting bigger.
World Bank’s report, Droughts and floods: An EPIC response to these hazards in the Era Of Climate Change, predicts that changes in the world’s hydrological cycle will mean stronger, longer droughts and floods.
These inextricably linked events it states, will require societies to adapt, governments to prioritise and scale up response, and agencies to engage with businesses, civil society, and households.
The energy sector is a case in point. Thermal power plants that account for majority of global electricity production can consume nearly as much water as the agriculture sector in some countries. According to reports energy-related water demand can be as high as 40% of the total water demand in a country. But increasing the efficiency of plants can change that.
Wärtsilä’s combustion engine power plant operating in simple cycle on natural gas is a good example of this. The plant has lesser heat loss and therefore lower cooling needs. It consumes merely 3 litres/MWh when compared to 780 litres/MWh consumed by a combined cycle gas turbine power plant (CCGT) with a recirculating system and 2500 litres/MWh consumed by a nuclear power plant with cooling towers. Similarly, Wärtsilä’s Flexicycle plant consumes just 409 liters/MWh and its Dry Flexicycle™ plants utilise air-cooled condensers (dry cooling) to reduce water use to near zero.
Innovations such as these can significantly reduce water usage and help deal with the acute scarcity and droughts going forward. But we will all still have to do our bit. Are you ready?
